247Bull.com Editor: The jury is still out on whether the major US stock indices are nearing a cyclical top or whether they can break through resistance and continue to climb the proverbial wall of worry. Meanwhile, emerging markets look to have made a cyclical bottom and are breaking out to the upside. Our trend following bias means that for the time being we favor emerging market equities over those in the US.
Our Global Investment Strategy service argues that investors increase their weight in international equities at the expense of U.S. ones.
The U.S. stock market is by no means expensive, but euro area, Japan and China are way cheaper using the price to book and forward P/E ratios for comparison. The second reason why the U.S. stock market should underperform the world benchmark is cyclical. The U.S. economy has passed its most dynamic phase of the profit recovery, and earnings growth has flattened out. Meanwhile, the recovery in the rest of the world has just begun.
Another important consideration is fiscal policy: the fiscal drag from the U.S. federal government is front loaded and the impact will be mostly felt in the first half of the year. For Europe, however, severe fiscal austerity has crested and most crisis-stricken countries are adopting much softer targets or measures to regain their fiscal balance.
In Japan, the Abe government has announced a new stimulus package amounting to 2% of GDP. In China, the government has been actively beefing up fiscal spending on infrastructure. As a result, there is a clear de-synchronization in fiscal policy among the major world economies: the U.S. is getting more austere while policy in the rest of the world is becoming more stimulative.
“Our Global Investment Strategy service argues that investors increase their weight in international equities at the expense of U.S. ones.”
All of this suggests that the underperformance of the U.S. stock market, which began about six months ago, should continue.
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Article courtesy of http://bcaresearch.com