With the Fed continuing to ramp down its QE programme, a bearish technical set up, and a lack of CPI inflation, the outlook for gold is bearish, and therefore gold is still likely to go to $1,000 before it goes to $2,000.
The price of gold recovered overnight losses after the release of US Federal Reserve meeting notes in London trade Thursday morning, rising back to $1375 as major stock markets also rose with commodities.
While the Fed’s taper talk has been tapered and then un-tapered, the market may now be tapering the Fed rather than vice versa. Let’s assess Act 2 of the taper talk and the implications for the markets, including the dollar and gold.
Wholesale gold edged back from last week’s two-month closing high on Monday morning, recording its best London Gold Fix since 18th June above $1375 per ounce. World stock markets slipped, with Indonesia dropping 5.5%, as major government bond prices also fell, driving interest rates higher.
India has a history of gold ownership, spurred by long-term experience of a weak rupee. Only a fool leaves rupees on deposit, because they usually buy less and less every year. Alternative stores of value such as equities have been nowhere as good or certain as gold.
The price of wholesale gold fell back to $1320 per ounce Wednesday lunchtime in London as new data showed the US economy expanding faster-than-expected. Second quarter GDP rose 1.7% in real terms from a year earlier, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said.
Gold has made some good progress in the last three weeks, and not surprisingly, so has the Gold & Silver Mining Index (XAU). When we looked at the chart recently, we saw a number of features worth talking about.
Wholesale gold rallied from a drop to $1310 per ounce Thursday lunchtime in London, gaining as world stock markets also cut earlier losses. Trading back above $1322 – a two-year low when hit by April’s gold crash – spot bullion also rallied 1.0% for Euro and Sterling investors.
Gold is up, even getting a positive mention in Barron’s. Is it Japan’s election or the tapering of the taper talk that’s driving gold higher of late? Is this a bounce or the beginning of a new major uptrend in gold?
In a recent article I introduced the concept of allowing for the increased quantity of aboveground gold and the expansion of the quantity of dollar currency over time when trying to value gold. The purpose of this article is to explain why such an obvious adjustment is rarely contemplated and why it should be applied.
London prices for physical gold held little changed Monday morning, edging lower from the best weekly finish in three as new data showed China’s economic growth slowing but retail sales rising sharply.
Both silver and gold slipped in London on Friday morning, edging down to $1271 per ounce and $19.80 respectively. European equities pushed higher while the US Dollar rallied and major government bond prices rose.