The price of gold recovered overnight losses after the release of US Federal Reserve meeting notes in London trade Thursday morning, rising back to $1375 as major stock markets also rose with commodities.
While the Fed’s taper talk has been tapered and then un-tapered, the market may now be tapering the Fed rather than vice versa. Let’s assess Act 2 of the taper talk and the implications for the markets, including the dollar and gold.
Wholesale gold edged back from last week’s two-month closing high on Monday morning, recording its best London Gold Fix since 18th June above $1375 per ounce. World stock markets slipped, with Indonesia dropping 5.5%, as major government bond prices also fell, driving interest rates higher.
In normal times, today’s combination of record low interest rates and massive infusions of capital into the banking system would ignite the mother of all expansions. That it hasn’t has confused the economists whose textbooks clearly state that it should. And it has convinced the Fed to just keep upping the ante with QE after QE.
In the short to medium term, the U.S. dollar and currencies are heavily influenced by the actions of the Fed. As the Fed may be reading tealeaves as much as anyone else, we may be facing particularly high policy uncertainty that, in turn, reflects on elevated volatility in the bond and currency markets. The good news is that this may yield opportunities for the prudent investor.
India has a history of gold ownership, spurred by long-term experience of a weak rupee. Only a fool leaves rupees on deposit, because they usually buy less and less every year. Alternative stores of value such as equities have been nowhere as good or certain as gold.
The Fed knows that the US economic recovery remains very fragile which is why it has completely backtracked on talk of reducing its asset purchases. The fact is QE will go on until the market, not government, puts a stop to it.
The price of wholesale gold fell back to $1320 per ounce Wednesday lunchtime in London as new data showed the US economy expanding faster-than-expected. Second quarter GDP rose 1.7% in real terms from a year earlier, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said.
Wholesale gold rallied from a drop to $1310 per ounce Thursday lunchtime in London, gaining as world stock markets also cut earlier losses. Trading back above $1322 – a two-year low when hit by April’s gold crash – spot bullion also rallied 1.0% for Euro and Sterling investors.