While the Fed’s taper talk has been tapered and then un-tapered, the market may now be tapering the Fed rather than vice versa. Let’s assess Act 2 of the taper talk and the implications for the markets, including the dollar and gold.
In the short to medium term, the U.S. dollar and currencies are heavily influenced by the actions of the Fed. As the Fed may be reading tealeaves as much as anyone else, we may be facing particularly high policy uncertainty that, in turn, reflects on elevated volatility in the bond and currency markets. The good news is that this may yield opportunities for the prudent investor.
For a number of weeks the Fed has been talking about “tapering” its asset purchases, and from the recent spike in US government bond yields and the decline in US equities it seems as though investors them at their word. This does however raise an interesting question: If the Fed really is going to begin taking away the punchbowl why is the dollar tanking?
The “cleanest” dirty shirt, the U.S. dollar, is down versus the euro so far this year; and was down last year. If this is a strong dollar environment, are investors prepared for a weak one? With plenty of dirty laundry in the world, we ponder how investors might be able to profit from actively managing currency risk.
This regular column reviews the condition of several different markets including: stocks, commodities, currencies and precious metals. This week focuses on the Wilshire 5000, West Texas Intermediate crude oil, palladium, and the Australian dollar.
The Fed’s “tapering,” the dollar’s up, bonds are down. Is this time to bet on the greenback, or to diversify out of the dollar? We believe the dollar may not only have gotten ahead of itself, it also rallied for the wrong reasons. We look at the risks and opportunities presented.
Seems whatever financial media you go to, the discussions are about speculation that Bernanke and his cohorts at the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are considering cutting back on quantitative easing, which is now running at $85 billion a month. ($45 billion in Treasuries, $40 billion in mortgage debt.)
Last week’s article ‘The Big Picture: From banking crisis to sovereign debt crisis to currency crisis’, provides a brief outline of each of the macro forces and trends that are currently impacting the global economy and financial markets. Today’s article attempts to show these forces in visual form so that investors can begin to understand the interplay between them.
It is clear that Western capital markets no longer generally regard gold as money. It has been relegated to the status of a risk asset, useful collateral, or simply a commodity with a history of being used as money. This is a mistake.
This article attempts to outline all the macro forces and trends that are currently impacting the global economy and financial markets. It is only by understanding all of these forces (and the interplay between them) that investors can begin to see the inevitable path from banking crisis to sovereign debt crisis to currency crisis.
Rolling Stone’s Matt Taibbi has once again put the world’s major news organizations to shame by describing, in comprehensible terms, the pervasive corruption at the heart of the financial system. Below are his concluding paragraphs from a much larger article that everyone with money at risk in a bank, brokerage account or business should read.