Examining the global crack-up boom: Part I

Since the 2008 financial crisis central banks around the world have created in excess of $12 trillion. Not only has their policy of ultra-lose money created another unsustainable boom in asset prices, it is looking increasingly likely that it will end in what Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises called a “crack-up boom”, i.e. a complete breakdown of the monetary system.

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Six options for resolving the global debt crisis

The global debt crisis is perhaps the single biggest threat to our economic future and therefore understanding how it might be resolved is vital. This article examines six options for resolving the global debt crisis. It also suggests which of these we are most likely to see, and what that will mean for investors.

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An introduction to Value Investing

If you had given $10,000 to Warren Buffet in 1956 that investment would now be worth over $400 million, and that’s after fees and taxes. Much of Buffet’s success is owed to his chosen investment philosophy, that of value investing. This article provides an introduction to the value investing philosophy and outlines its core principles. Background [...]

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Taper Talk, Act 2

While the Fed’s taper talk has been tapered and then un-tapered, the market may now be tapering the Fed rather than vice versa. Let’s assess Act 2 of the taper talk and the implications for the markets, including the dollar and gold.

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Are Banks Finally Ready To Start Lending?

In normal times, today’s combination of record low interest rates and massive infusions of capital into the banking system would ignite the mother of all expansions. That it hasn’t has confused the economists whose textbooks clearly state that it should. And it has convinced the Fed to just keep upping the ante with QE after QE.

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Price inflation approaching

There is some evidence in the UK of a pick-up in consumer spending. There are two likely factors behind this, the first perhaps being seasonal, aided by the fine weather. The second is less obvious, but combines with the first to encourage purchases of big ticket items; and this is cheap consumer finance coupled with growing expectations of higher interest rates in the future.

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What’s next for the Dollar and Currencies? Updated Merk Outlook August 2013

In the short to medium term, the U.S. dollar and currencies are heavily influenced by the actions of the Fed. As the Fed may be reading tealeaves as much as anyone else, we may be facing particularly high policy uncertainty that, in turn, reflects on elevated volatility in the bond and currency markets. The good news is that this may yield opportunities for the prudent investor.

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